Sunday, February 22, 2009

81st Annual Academy Awards Predictions!

This year is turning out to be one of the most predictable in years. Granted, we won't know just how predictable they are until tonight, but if you look around the internet for predictions, you'll notice that not many awards are up for debate. Mostly what we have are frontrunners and potential upsets, with some locks here and there and a couple that are semi up in the air.

Hey, is it weird that Cameron Diaz wasn't in He's Just Not That Into You? Also, she just MISPRONOUNCED Kaufman (he's the dude who wrote the script for the only movie you were ever good in, remember?) then made a big deal about saying Synecdoche correctly. That was beyond awkward. Phil Hoffman & Charlie Kaufman are so uncomfortable right now. Sorry, I have the Spirit Awards on. Anyway. Oh crap, Kaufman just pronounced Josh Pais' last name incorrectly. He was my teacher. Ok, really moving on now.

So, below are my guesses for the winners of the 81st Annual Academy Awards! For all of the categories.

Also, keep in mind that RARELY do all four acting Oscars go to all four obvious choices. Remember Alan Arkin upsetting Eddie Murphy and Marion Cotillard upsetting Julie Christie. I highly doubt that the four winners will be Rourke/Winslet/Ledger/Cruz as those are the four obvious choices. Expect to see a shake up, most likely in Supporting Actress.

Best Picture

Obvious Choice: Slumdog Millionaire

As david would say, duh city.

Possible Upset: Milk

I don't think any film can break Slumdog's inexplicable (ok, slightly explicable, but only slightly. muh) awards season sweep, but if one's gonna do it, it'll be Milk. I feel like when the Academy took a look at this category on their ballot, and thought "You know...Slumdog's actually pretty overrated" and wanted to vote for something else, they'd lean towards the one that would make the best statement. Frost/Nixon? Um. No. Not winning. The Reader? Shove it, Harvey. Benjamin Button? I'm the only person ever who loved that movie, but I feel like people would groan if it won the big one. Milk, however? It's a well made film that tells a really important story, especially considering the current political climate surrounding gay rights. It's the only film that could win and leave everyone satisfied at this point. Except for those people who loved Slumdog, I guess.

Best Director

Obvious Choice: Danny Boyle

Possible Upset: Yeah Right

Best Actor

Obvious Choice: Mickey Rourke

But It Could Go To: Sean Penn

Possible Crazy Upset: Richard Jenkins

This year has been a battle between Penn & Rourke for as long as we all can remember, but so were Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson at the 75th Oscars, right? What if Richard Jenkins pulled an Adrian Brody? I's not gonna happen, just...throwing it out there. Ultimately I think Rourke has the momentum, the story & the performance and will take the big prize. Though Danno is still with Dave Karger in thinking Penn will take it, largely because he won the SAG award and the academy is mostly made up of actors.

Best Actress

Obvious Choice: Kate Winslet

But It Could Go To: Meryl Streep

Possible Crazy Upset: Melissa Leo

Sorry, Anne, but it's not your year. I thought you were amazing, but it's not your year. Kate Winslet more or less has it in the bag, as she's been nominated a bajillion times and never won and all that and it is pretty nuts that it doesn't say "Oscar Winner" in front of her name during the trailers for her films. But Meryl hasn't won in 15 years and she's...Meryl. This could be the big surprise of the night.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger, as he should

Best Supporting Actress

Obvious Choice: Penelope Cruz

But It Could Be: Viola Davis or Taraji P. Henson

I'm counting Marisa Tomei out cause she has an Oscar and Amy Adams out cause she has red hair. My personal favorite out of this bunch is Penelope Cruz (if Rosemarie Dewitt got the nomination this year, my choice may have been different) but Nate Silver's numbers are going with Henson, and Nate is rarely incorrect. Viola Davis is the favorite to overtake Penelope, though I don't think she should.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Obvious Choice: Slumdog Millionaire

Possible Upset: The Reader

But I sure as hell hope not. Fuck The Reader even more than Slumdog Millionaire for taking Dark Knight's spot in the Best Picture category.

Best Original Screenplay

Obvious Choice: Milk

Possible Upset: Wall-E

Possible Super Upset: In Bruges

Assuming Slumdog & Rourke take the other big ones, this category will be the "Thanks for playing, Milk, you were great" one. It would suck if the movie was shut out all together and I don't think Academy members would let that happen. If this award goes to Wall-E, I smell a win for Sean Penn...

Art Direction

Obvious Choice: Benjamin Button

But It Could Go To: Slumdog (blech) or Dark Knight. Which would be cool. But it won't happen.

You can't deny that Benjamin Button was beautiful. If you do, you are a liar and an idiot. I said it.


Obvious Choice: Slumdog

But It Could Go To: Benjamin Button

Super Crazy Upset: Dark Knight

Go Wally!

Best Foreign Film

No obvious choice here! It's a toss up between Waltz With Bashir & The Class. If I had to pick one, it would be Waltz with Bashir, because it's new & innovative and deserves a freaking award for being a foreign animated documentary, COME ON.

Best Documentary

Obvious Choice: Man On Wire

Possible Upset: Encounters at the End of the World or Trouble the Water

Man on Wire's got it in the bag

Sound Awards

Obvious Choice: Dark Knight

Possible Upset: Wall - E or Slumdog...if Slumdog wins these, I swear....THROW DARK KNIGHT A BONE

Best Animated Feature

Wall-E. Done and done.

Best Costume Design

Obvious Choice: The Duchess

I don't think it's going to anyone else. Frilly costume dramas usually rule this category.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Obvious Choice: The Conscience of Nhem En

But It Could Go To: The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

My only blind category this year. I'm going with Conscience because it's won all these awards and seems to be the frontrunner, but I've heard rumblings that Witness could overtake it.

Best Editing

Obvious Choice: Slumdog

Possible Upset: Dark Knight or Milk

I didn't think Milk's editing was anything amazing, but it's getting upset talk. Dark Knights editing - you loved it or you hated it. My guess it when it comes to the members of the academy (mostly actors...) marking a ballot, they are gonna go for the one that plays with time and is all cool! Which would be Slumdog.

Best Makeup

Obvious Choice: Benjamin Button

Possible Upset: Hellboy 2

If the Academy just REALLY HATES Benjamin Button & everything it stands for

Best Special Effects

Obvious Choice: Benjamin Button

Benjamin Button created some new shit and don't the ones that create new shit always win? I mean, you can't argue with me on this one. If something else wins, I'm pissed

Best Song & Score

Obvious Choice: Slumdog for both, for song specifically, Jai Ho

Possible Upset: Wall-E, but it won't happen :(

Best Animated Short

Obvious Choice: Presto

But It Could Be: La Maison en Petits Cubes

Possible Upset: Lavatory-Love Story

I loved all three of these. Presto is Pixar's best short since 2001, but the Academy is known now for overlooking Pixar in this category and giving it to the folks who don't win the feature length oscar every year. I'm thinking it'll go to the beautiful La Maison en Petits Cubes.

Best Live Action Short

Obvious Choice: Toyland

But It Could Be: New Boy

Possible Upset: The Pig

This one is tough for me. I know I'm gonna end up marking the Holocaust one - Toyland - but I LOVED New Boy and would rather that one pull it out in the end. Both New Boy & The Pig have more to say than Toyland. I'm very curious to see what happens.

So there you have it! Hope this helps you in figuring out your Oscar pool. Unless you are coming to my party. In which case, please don't beat me. I really wanna win this year.